If you are going to bet on the NCAA Tournament, then you need to identify some March Madness trends to follow. Betting trends do tend to drive betting in all sports, but that can be especially true when it comes to March Madness.
Things tend to get pretty crazy during the month of March, and NCAA Tournament trends can change from year-to-year. The sport of college basketball is much different now than it was even five years ago, and you have to be willing to adjust to the betting trends that you are looking for.
You don’t always have to follow your March Madness trends perfectly, as there might be some times in when you want to change things up a bit. This should be where you start, though, and finding these trends is going to put you on the path to being more successful.
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March Madness Betting Trends for 2023
There are always going to be huge surprises or upsets in the NCAA Tournament, as that is what makes this event so great. Be sure to write down the NCAA Tournament betting trends that you use or ignore this year, and that can give you a leg up for the following year.
March Madness betting is one of the best options that are out there, and you don’t want to miss out on the chance to win some money. Bookmark this guide so that you can look back on it and remember the trends to follow and the trends to ignore.
March Madness Betting Trends to Follow
You are going to have to do plenty of research if you are going to win when betting on the NCAA Tournament, and finding trends is something that you should look for. There are three March Madness historical trends that you are going to hear mentioned, and you should always follow these when making your picks.
There are other things to look at as well, but following these trends can help make some of the betting decisions for you.
Bet the 12, 13 Seeds
One of the most popular March Madness trends that you are going to find is people who are always betting on the 12 or 13 seeds. It might feel like a stretch to bet on teams with such high numbers, but those are usually the most common upsets that happen in the first round.
There is a reason for this as well as some of the best mid-major teams end up in those spots on the bracket or some of the final power conference teams to make the field. It’s hard to remember a year that doesn’t have at least one or two upsets in this range, and some years there are several.
This doesn’t mean that you should always blindly bet on a 12 or 13 seed, but if you are looking for upset picks, then it would be a good idea to start there. You also want to follow the trend of not taking those 12 or 13 seeds too deep into the bracket, though, as the magic eventually runs out.
Find the Top Coaches
NCAA Tournament games have a tendency to be extremely competitive, and several are going to be decided in the final few minutes of a game. One trend that you need to look for is to find the teams with the best coaches and then back those teams with your bets.
College basketball is a sport that is driven by some legendary coaches, and those coaches build up their resumes in the NCAA Tournament. The best coaches aren’t really needed in the games that turn into blowouts, but they will matter at some point during a March Madness run.
You can’t make all of your bets based on which team you feel has the best coaching staff, but those coaches are ultimately going to impact how a game is played.
Find Some Balance
It can be pretty easy to find the best offensive teams in the NCAA Tournament and then make bets on them to win a game. Or you could look at a program like Virginia that is consistently among the best defensive teams in the country.
The best NCAA Tournament teams are going to be those that are great on both ends of the floor, and you can find this information out by looking closely at the analytics that is available. Every NCAA Tournament game is going to be played differently, and teams have to know how to win in a variety of ways.
The most balanced teams are typically those that spent most of the year near the top of the AP Poll as well because they have then proven that they are able to win games in a variety of ways.
Best Sportsbooks for Betting on March Madness Trends
Before we jump into trends to forget, you will need to know which websites give the most value when betting on March Madness. With so many sportsbooks to choose from, finding the right platform to bet on March Madness trends can be overwhelming.
Here are some of the best sportsbooks for March Madness betting, including their features, betting options, and promotions.
March Madness Trends to Forget
It’s always essential to identify March Madness betting trends that can help you be successful, but you also want to identify the trends that you should ignore. Since the format of this event doesn’t change every year, you are going to find some things that people tend to focus on.
There are three betting trends that you should forget about or ignore in 2023, as things are going to play out differently this time around. If you hear the “experts” mentioning these trends, then you need to ignore them and focus on your own research.
Big Ten Conference Always Fails
One of the March Madness historical trends that always gets mentioned when it comes to the NCAA Tournament is that you should bet against the Big Ten Conference. Sure, the Big Ten has only won one NCAA Championship in the past two decades, but this conference puts many teams in the NCAA Tournament every year.
It’s simply lazy to sit around and suggest that the Big Ten Conference always fails, and you can’t look at past results when it comes to this event. Things can change significantly from year to year, and forgetting about betting on an entire conference is a huge mistake.
You can keep this thought in the back of your mind when you are analyzing matchups during the NCAA Tournament, but that’s as far as you can go. You have to take a close look at each individual matchup and see if you like the Big Ten Conference team in that game.
At some point, the Big Ten Conference is going to have a champion again, and you don’t want to miss out on betting on that team just because they have struggled in recent years.
Guard Play Matters
One of the NCAA Tournament trends that are no longer relevant is the fact that teams with the best guards always seem to go the farthest in March. Having good guard play is extremely important, but there are other factors that determine how far teams go as well.
Having a good point guard is a great start to building a good team, but it’s actually the wing players that tend to be the best overall. You are usually going to see wing players that go early in the NBA Draft, and those players need to step up in the NCAA Tournament.
If you are going to only bet on the teams that have the best guards, then you are going to set yourself up for some bad losses. You can always start with the guards when trying to pick the best teams in the NCAA Tournament, but there is much more to it than that.
You can no longer count on the top point guards to carry their teams to the Final Four.
Always Bet on Experienced Teams
For years one of the March Madness historical trends that people have followed is that the most experienced teams tend to go farther in March. It’s always good to have experienced players, but college basketball rosters are built completely differently these days.
Recruiting a player and developing that player is no longer something that most programs do, but that doesn’t mean that teams don’t have seniors on the roster. Teams are now built through the transfer portal, and some teams are going to look completely different year after year.
If you are checking out a roster and see a team that is full of seniors, you can assume that the coaching staff was very fortunate in hitting the transfer portal. Most of those players have only spent one or two years at their new school, and there isn’t a ton of chemistry between the players.
The biggest reason for backing a team with a ton of experience is that they have been through some battles together. There just isn’t a ton of consistency with rosters that are built through the portal, and that’s why trusting experience teams is one of the March Madness trends to ignore.
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March Madness Betting Trends FAQ
Why do people say to avoid betting on Big Ten teams?
Big Ten teams have a track record of underperforming in the NCAA tournament in recent years. A Big Ten team has not won the title since Maryland in 2002. While this drought will almost certainly come to an end at some point, it’s hard to have confidence until then. However, Big Ten teams do tend to make deep tournament runs and are often among the favorites.
What are the best March Madness upsets to pick?
One of the most popular March Madness upsets to pick is a 12-seed to beat a 5-seed. A 12-over-5 upset has occurred in all but three NCAA men’s tournaments since 2000, and some years have seen multiples of such upsets.
Which coach has the most NCAA tournament wins?
As of writing, Mike Krzyzewski has the most wins of any NCAA tournament coach at 101.
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